Język Polski
English
Published
:
2011-04-30
The Inflation Forecasting Systems and Inflation Forecast Targeting in the Era of the Financial Crisis
Magdalena Szyszko
Abstract
This paper describes the cases of five central banks of new European Union member states. The Czech National Bank, the National Bank of Poland, the National Bank of Romania and the National Bank of Hungary have been implementing direct inflation targeting for few years now. Moreover they have been forecasting inflation and they have been publishing the forecasts on the regular basis. They have implemented inflation forecasts targeting as well. Also the National Bank of Slovakia was inflation targeter since the accession of Slovakia to the Eurozone. The purpose of this article is to describe the changes of the forecasting systems that took place between mid 2007 and mid 2009 - in the period of crisis development. The behaviour of these central banks was compared in three fields: changes in forecasting methodology, changes in publication of the message of the forecast and finally: changes of the forecasts' importance in the monetary committee discussions. The conclusion is that some of the changes have direct relation to growing volatility in the economic environment and some don't. (original abstract)Keywords:
Inflation, Economic forecast, Inflation rates, Central banksMost read articles by the same author(s)
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Szyszko, M. (2011). The Inflation Forecasting Systems and Inflation Forecast Targeting in the Era of the Financial Crisis. Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Bankowej W Poznaniu, 33(33). Retrieved from https://journals.wsb.poznan.pl/index.php/znwsb/article/view/1498