Język Polski
English
Published
:
2014-06-30
Public Debt Sustainability - the Case of Poland
Emília Zimková
Abstract
As public debt soared in many countries, the issue of debt sustainability started attracting more and more attention worldwide. In this paper, we understand debt sustainability as a sovereign's ability to service debt without significant adjustments to revenue and/or expenditure, and without increasing the public-debt-to-GDP ratio. The paper delivers a debt sustainability analysis for Poland. Three scenarios have been modeled for developments in Poland's primary balance until 2021. The first one, the so called baseline or status quo scenario, indicates how much Poland would be indebted in 2021 in case there were no adjustments to its public sector revenues and/or expenditures (the primary balance). The other two scenarios address the question of the extent to which Poland would have to consolidate its primary balance if it aimed to: (a) keep the current level of public debt, or (b) bring the public-debt-to-GDP ratio down to a threshold level of 50%. This paper contributes to the theory of public debt sustainability. The methodology applied in the scenario building is based on that developed by Deutsche Bank Research.(original abstract)Keywords:
Public finance, Public debtMost read articles by the same author(s)
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Zimková, E. (2014). Public Debt Sustainability - the Case of Poland. Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Bankowej W Poznaniu, 54(3). Retrieved from https://journals.wsb.poznan.pl/index.php/znwsb/article/view/1126